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Yale climate scientist Alexey Fedorov explains the reasons why experts are predicting a more active Atlantic hurricane season.

By Jim Shelton

June 18, 2024

(Credit: NASA)

Alexey Fedorov, a professor of ocean and atmospheric sciences in Yale’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences, has dedicated his career to understanding the dynamics of atmospheric moisture, rainfall, wind, temperature, and ocean circulation that contribute to significant climate and weather events. He has conducted pioneering research on El Niño and La Niña phenomena and has significantly advanced knowledge of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), one of Earth's largest water circulation systems.

While much of Fedorov’s work involves long-term climate modeling, he is also attuned to the immediate impacts of global climate change, including the potential for stronger storms. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and will continue until November 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts an 85% chance of an "above normal" season this year, with a projected 17 to 25 named storms (winds of 30 miles per hour or higher), including eight to thirteen hurricanes (winds of 74 miles per hour or higher). In an average season, there are fourteen named storms and seven hurricanes.

Fedorov discussed with Yale News the scientific basis for these predictions and ongoing questions about hurricane formation.

"It is quite reasonable to expect a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic this year," Fedorov stated. "Two main factors are at play: the main development region for hurricanes in the tropical North Atlantic, as well as the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, is already 2 to 3°C warmer than its long-term climatological temperature. At the same time, there is strong evidence of developing La Niña conditions in the Pacific."

Explaining further about El Niño/La Niña effects on storm severity, Fedorov noted: "El Niño — warm conditions in the equatorial Pacific — has a tendency to increase vertical wind shear in the North Atlantic... reducing the number of hurricanes there. On the other hand... La Niña — cold conditions in the Pacific — reduces vertical wind shear in the Atlantic... increasing [the] number."

Other significant factors include persistently higher sea surface temperatures in tropical regions and reduced vertical wind shear. These elements facilitate tropical cyclogenesis by increasing energy flow from ocean to atmosphere while aiding vortex formation.

Regarding global warming's impact on hurricanes, Fedorov commented: "Tropical cyclones will likely become more intense on average as [a] warmer atmosphere will hold more water vapor. They will survive for longer periods...[and] may be able to occur at higher latitudes than previously." However, he added that whether hurricane frequency will increase remains debated.

Addressing remaining questions within climate science about hurricane dynamics, Fedorov pointed out uncertainties regarding changes in hurricane frequency due to global warming. Additionally: "The impacts of... weakening [of] AMOC...on tropical cyclones...[indicate] we could expect more hurricanes along [the U.S.] eastern seaboard due to this weakening."